So, it’s that time again. The Oscars nominations came out last week and it’s always a mad scramble to see, not what great movies were nominated, but what great movies were not. Most shocking of all is that Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead was completely overlooked. Wtf. Juno made the Best Picture list, which doesn’t exactly infuriate me, but if you watch the two side to side, there is no comparison. Juno was cute, Ellen Page was charismatic, but come on. Yeah, yeah, bla bla travesty and all that. I’m used to it.
Here are my predictions:
Best Actor – Johnny Depp
Possibly Daniel-Day Lewis, but I think Depp will get it for his duel task of singing and acting. Viggo Mortensen was pretty incredible in Eastern Promises but he won’t get it because I think the Academy secretly hates David Cronenberg.
Supporting Actor – Tom Wilkinson
I think they will want to credit Michael Clayton in some way, but without giving it the Best Picture or Best Actor award. They won’t want to appear to be beholden to George Clooney.
Actress – Laura Linney
She’s done her time and apparently it is a good movie. They’ll possibly give it to Ellen Page since they will most likely not give Juno the Best Picture award, and The Academy likes to appear hip to the “indie” scene by awarding safe Quirky Indie Movies (QIMs). Also, they love giving awards to children.
Supporting Actress – Cate Blanchett
She is double nominated, which is usually a clincher, but the Academy really loves when actors play parts that are role-reversals. For example: when pretty girls make themselves ugly, thin men make themselves fat, or now, when they play other genders. They also love the biopics, which is why her leading role in Elizabeth: The Golden Age will serve to help her out in the supporting category.
Best Picture – Atonement
Atonement is the safe bet, which is usually how the Academy votes. It’s a genuinely good movie that is non-threatening and has the whole Merchant-Ivory vibe without being Merchant-Ivory. They might give it to There Will Be Blood, if they are having a guilt trip about being such conservative hacks, but I doubt it. They almost always go with the safe choice.